Sunday, 24 January 2010

Boro - Just a One Man Team

As I sat in the stadium yesterday I wondered 'has our recent decline really been due to Gordon Strachan, or is there another reason' and then it hit me. Adam Johnson.

I mentioned this to my mate sat next to me, and we both wondered how what the results have been when he has played well, and what they have been when he's not directly contributed, so I set about collating a few statistics to see what the answer was.

Now unfortunately I can't find a site with his player rating out of ten for each game (and this blog doesn't go back that far) so I had to go with the games he played, missed, scored and assisted in, and it makes shocking reading:

Includes two cup games where points have not been counted

When Johnson plays, and contributes with a goal or assist, we win 64% of our games, compared to 12% without a contribution. 23 points with a Adam Johnson contribution, and only 10 without.

Has Johnson's contribution flattered Southgate?

Now here is the interesting thing, Boro have now played 28 games in all competitions this season, and also each manager has managed for 14 games each, so its a good time to look at the 'Johnson Effect' for each manager. Now something you hear quite a bit is that we should never have got rid of Southgate as we were one point off top... but how much of this had to do with Southgate's managerial ability, or just that Adam Johnson was in a patch of good form?

In Gareth Southgate's 14 games in charge, Johnson contributed a goal or assist in 8 out of 14 games (57%), and in Strachan's first this figure is 3 out of 14 games (21%).

Now it could have been that Southgate got the best out of Adam Johnson, but there was signs there that his form was ebbing away - in the last six games Southgate had in charge Johnson only contributed in two games, leading to three losses in the same period, so I'm not convinced that it was this. We all know Johnson couldn't keep his Ronaldo like form up all season, and I believe that his drop in form had started prior Strachan taking over, not because he took over.

I'll leave you to make your own conclusions, you might still think that Southgate should never have got sacked, or that we should cash in on Johnson now, or even that Strachan is the answer, but whatever your opinion, the figures speak for themselves and go to show that Adam Johnson is the most influential player at Middlesbrough Football Club by far...


  1. Teams found us out. Once they realised how dependent we were on AJ they have forced us to play through the middle and look how ineffective we have been - that fluke over QPR apart - since.

  2. Interesting analysis, and it makes me wonder whether we should sell Jinky just to force us to be less reliant on one player, a player who appears to already have a foot out of the door based on his current form.

    Cool blog, incidentally. A link from my page will be set up today. Keep up the good work!

  3. Did something similar with Jones and Coyne with interesting results

    Jones p 14 conceded 18 Points 17
    Coyne p 14 conceded 16 Points 16 (included 2 cup games)

    Slightly more effective with Jones especially taking into account Coyne's 1st 4 games 0 conceded and 10 points.

  4. Think difference with Coyne and Jones that Coyne conceded 5 against WBA, and was dropped after his good start due to that... then only has got his game back very recently when we were losing all matter of games! But its always very interesting to compare stats like this, and you can always find a different angle due to your interpretation! Keep up the good work! Its not often I find that fans look at the stats before judging a player (like Jones) - it could well be that he's been hard done by looking at the stats alone!

    For the record, when I have seen Jones play, especially at home, he is too nervous and isn't the answer for us at the moment. I would stick with Coyne, but that's what's good about opinions - we all have different ones!

    Cheers for reading the blog...

  5. well what the boro need to do i think is to get a goal score in and than we can sell johnson becouse hes the only 1 really that is scoreing for us really atm and if hes not scoreing hes getting close to the goal becouse lita is terible he cart score for toffie we need a striker befor anything happens and we need 1 fast !!!

  6. After tonights game I'd like us to keep hold of Johnson and keep playing Lita!