Boro - Just a One Man Team

As I sat in the stadium yesterday I wondered 'has our recent decline really been due to Gordon Strachan, or is there another reason' and then it hit me. Adam Johnson.

I mentioned this to my mate sat next to me, and we both wondered how what the results have been when he has played well, and what they have been when he's not directly contributed, so I set about collating a few statistics to see what the answer was.

Now unfortunately I can't find a site with his player rating out of ten for each game (and this blog doesn't go back that far) so I had to go with the games he played, missed, scored and assisted in, and it makes shocking reading:

Includes two cup games where points have not been counted

When Johnson plays, and contributes with a goal or assist, we win 64% of our games, compared to 12% without a contribution. 23 points with a Adam Johnson contribution, and only 10 without.

Has Johnson's contribution flattered Southgate?

Now here is the interesting thing, Boro have now played 28 games in all competitions this season, and also each manager has managed for 14 games each, so its a good time to look at the 'Johnson Effect' for each manager. Now something you hear quite a bit is that we should never have got rid of Southgate as we were one point off top... but how much of this had to do with Southgate's managerial ability, or just that Adam Johnson was in a patch of good form?

In Gareth Southgate's 14 games in charge, Johnson contributed a goal or assist in 8 out of 14 games (57%), and in Strachan's first this figure is 3 out of 14 games (21%).

Now it could have been that Southgate got the best out of Adam Johnson, but there was signs there that his form was ebbing away - in the last six games Southgate had in charge Johnson only contributed in two games, leading to three losses in the same period, so I'm not convinced that it was this. We all know Johnson couldn't keep his Ronaldo like form up all season, and I believe that his drop in form had started prior Strachan taking over, not because he took over.

I'll leave you to make your own conclusions, you might still think that Southgate should never have got sacked, or that we should cash in on Johnson now, or even that Strachan is the answer, but whatever your opinion, the figures speak for themselves and go to show that Adam Johnson is the most influential player at Middlesbrough Football Club by far...

Should We Worry..?

I though I might try and work using averages of points scored, and previous league final standings to see if we have any chance of going up without divine intervention...

Averages...

Looking at a few stats from last two seasons in The Championship and our current performance we firstly, to gain automatic promotion in 2007/08 would have needed 76 points, and a play-off place would be 70 points... And for the 2008/09 season it was 81 and 74 respectively. Now what will be required this year? Well West Brom have played 23 and have 45 points, but not knowing how they will play for their remaining 23 games I'll just have to average out their points over 46 games, that figure being a massive 90 points. So we are looking at quite a tall order to get up there, probably requiring 80-90 for automatic promotion, and 70-80 for a play-off position.

So, how are we doing on our current form? Well we are currently on 32 points from 24 games, at an average of 1.3 points per game. Now that averaged out over the season would put us on 60 points, someway short of our target. Interestingly for the games that Gareth Southgate was in charge of (23 points from 13 games - average 1.8 ppg) the points gained averaged out over the course of the season would have us on 83 points - pretty much guaranteed in the play-offs...

What do we need...

Well for the play-offs we need say 75, which would be an extra 43 points over 22 games which equates to nearly 2 points per game, and promotion at say, 85 points would leave us requiring 53 points from 22 games at 2.4 points per game.

Strachan's points per game ratio is 9 points from 11 games at a rate of 0.8 points per game...

So, it will take us to get double the points under Strachan for the last 22 games if we are to come anywhere near, and obviously we will be taking points from the teams above us, so that will help... but its looking very unlikely that without a miraculous turn around in form that we can come near to the play-off positions. More worryingly still, if we continue at the same rate of points scored we will have 50 points come the end of the season, which last year would have placed us 21st (fourth from bottom) and only 4 points above relegation.

Can Strachan do it..?

I believe he can get near, if he brings in the right sort of players in January, and we shouldn't be in danger of going down. But, and its a big but, it is imperative that Steve Gibson backs him in January and we start picking up points against Swansea on the 9th Jan, at home.

What do you think..?

A bit of realism please...

I feel sorry for Gordon Strachan. He had the balls to take the poisoned chalice that is the Boro Manager’s job, and the fans repay him by shouting for his head after 6 games. I think this behaviour by a small section of the fans is pathetic and a disgrace.

Long gone are the days where Bryan Robson and Steve McClaren had the best Chairman in the league, were given money to compete for honours and given that luxury of time that all managers crave... unfortunately a certain Gareth Southgate spoiled all that. Now we are left with a club that is broke, impatient fans, relegation and the hope of promotion ebbing away on weekly basis. We are all aware of the events that have brought us to Championship football so we won't dwell on them too much, but one thing amazes me - Steve Gibson, with the help of Gareth Southgate have destroyed our beloved club yet some fans think the blame lies with Gordon Strachan.

Strachan, like Southgate, has inherited someone else's team. He has had six games. Just six. Southgate had three seasons. So why won't some fans give Strachan a chance? Even if we didn't get promoted how can that be Strachan's fault? He will be trying his utmost to get promoted, because he is a winner, but he only has the resources available to him that Southgate's tenure left. I think that this minority of fans forget this, that we are in the Championship because of Southgate, that we have no money because of Southgate's purchases (and McClaren's before him), and dwindling attendances again, because of relegation, due to Southgate.

So with all things considered above its not the great job it used to be - Gordon thought that he would get time at Boro, but with Gibson's recent form, and if attendances drop even further it will be interesting to see how much time he actually would have, especially if promotion is not secured. There will be a lack of funds for Strachan also - even if we go up I can't see Mr Gibson signing any more £12m cheques for Brazilians playing in average European leagues.

Southgate is reported to be starting legal proceedings against the club, as rightly he wants his payout. But for me this has far more reaching implications which might explain why he remained as manager for so long. Being an astute man Gareth will have known that if he resigned he would be due nothing, so did he hold out at the expense of the club just so he would be guaranteed his lump sum? I don't know, but it's all a bit convenient for me. So Gibson has been weak, he should have acted earlier and saved the club from relegation but decided to think of the financial implications of paying out twelve months wages, shame he didn't think about the implications of relegation.

I thought that Gibson would have learned from the relegation that you need to strong to avoid doing down, make changes when they need to be made, and also make sure everyone in the club knows who is boss. Unfortunately though, more weakness prevailed, and it was Huth and Tuncay who came out on top, Tuncay especially, throwing strops to make sure he got his move back to the Premier League. If you look at West Brom and Newcastle they haven't sold their key players like we have, and they are the teams that are walking away with automatic promotion places. Huth was immense in defence, and Tuncay made playing up front look easy in the Championship - these were the type of players that we should have kept. Never mind all this unity spin from Southgate that "we only want players who want to be here" rubbish, we don't want to stay in the Championship, and the clubs needs come before the players...

Now any fan must realise that if Gareth remained we might have got another striker, if that. Gibson was not keep to spend the money in the close season when he was publicly backing Southgate, and only £500,000 was spent, namely on Mark Yeates. That striker may have been the quality of Caleb Folan, as Gareth certainly isn't known for signing quality players so what position would be in if he had remained? Probably a similar position to where we find ourselves now. The amount of home games that we had lost was terrible - if we had continued at the same rate we would have lost at least 12 for the season, and that certainly isn't the form that keeps you one point off top.

What other legacies has Gareth left us with then? You could start with the departures of James Morrison and Lee Cattermole. Both players left and have made themselves first team regulars, both have played in the Premiership, and Morrison regularly at the top of the Championship. Could Gareth not improve these players, or have controlled them? Cattermole is the one that really annoys me - touted as a future England star, he has always shown passion and commitment, but ends up leaving for not much, and becomes a regular centre midfielder. Maybe if Gareth had played him in his position we might have reaped the benefits...

Southgate has also left us with many club records broken, and not the good ones... A £6m loss on Afonso Alves, discontent between the club and fans, fighting amongst fans torn by his three year tenure... There seems to be many negatives, but not many positives. So even with all of the above, fans certainly gave Gareth longer than six games (people are actually wanting him back!!!)... and that is what Strachan needs - time...

It seems like Mr Gibson has learned from his mistakes, and has employed a good, proven, experienced manager and it looks like he is prepared to back him financially. If we as fans are patient with the team at home, get behind them for at least beyond half time, maybe fill the stadium a little more we might be able to make a difference and rid Boro of this fear of playing at home. After all, we all want the same thing... promotion. And I'm sure that Gordon Strachan is working tirelessly to ensure that we have the best chance of going up, rather than holding on to the job waiting to be sacked for the big payday... I just hope that it’s not too late, and even if it is there are only two men to blame, and neither of them is Gordon Strachan.

Thanks for reading, and as always comments (good or bad) are always appreciated. Keep a look out on Twitter (@MFCFacebook) and check the links section of this blog for the Facebook MFC Fanpage.

Email Rants

Here are a few snippets from the various email conversations my fellow Boro fans and I have during the long tedious week at work... Please note that these aren't necessarily my views before I get slated for the anti-Gibson comments! Anyone agree with any of these thoughts?

Darren Bent & Steve Gibson

"Bent needs a run in the side before I pass judgement, I've only seen him play for about 70 mins - first game he looked pretty good, against Forest he was poor.

Gibson has made a massive error here you know, just looking at our front line the alarm bells should have been ringing! Now he's acted too late, and WGS is having to bring players in and hope the make an impact early doors, which is hard. Bent might have been all right if he had a pre-season, same with Folan, but now we are just chucking them on the pitch and hoping. Its not WGS's fault, what can he do? Its Gibson's and Southgate's, and it is gonna stop us going up in all likeliness. Gibson is a weak man, he should have got rid in Jan but never, that cost us our Prem League status, he should have sacked him at end of the season, but didn't, and that's gonna cost us promotion. From Hero to Zero in 3 seasons, cheers Steve, now jog on!

Gibson needs to spend about £10m to get us anywhere near promotion in Jan, people like Beckford and Hulse are who we should be looking to buy - PROVEN goalscorers... how many times has it being said? We need EXPERIENCE and players with PROVEN records!"

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"Its annoyed me quite a bit actually - I know we aren't gonna win 4 games on the bounce so it won't affect us, and it might get a few more in (prob not that many more), but its the way MFC can only ever take REACTIVE action to any situation, rather than PROACTIVE action.

Prime example of this was Southgate, should have got sacked but we waited until we had lost 4 at home, this ST thing is another... if they were worried about attendance (which they should have been by keeping Southgate on) they should have dropped ST prices by 20% or something.

Obviously this way they won't lose any money cos we aint winning 4 on the bounce, but I think fans know this and there won't be that many that will fall for the ploy..."

Well as you can probably tell there is some annoyance with Boro in these two snippets, but what about the rest of the fans? Are they losing patience with the club? Please comment and let me know!

Thanks for reading, and as always comments (good or bad) are always appreciated. Keep a look out on Twitter (@MFCFacebook) and check the links section of this blog for the Facebook MFC Fanpage.

Southgate's Signings

Now we are about a third of the way through the season, I thought that it might be a good time to look back at some of the new additions to the squad, as Gareth Southgate prepared his team to conquer The Championship. We'll look at what impact the players have made and how their futures may pan out at Middlesbrough Football Club. I think its too soon to look at Gordon Strachan's additions, but I will be writing about Gordon in the coming weeks, and will include his signings in that post. So, on to the players...

Danny Coyne - Goalkeeper

Danny was a welcome signing to a proportion of the crowd, who realised that we were very short of cover in this department. He made an excellent start to the season, aided by Wheater and Huth, and was the only Championship keeper to keep clean sheets for his first four league games. It looked that we had found out number one, but then it all rapidly went down hill at home against West Brom, letting in 5, and gifting them their second by clearing the ball to an opposing player whilst someway off his line. Coyne then got a knock, was replaced by Brad Jones, and despite not always looking the best keeper has kept his starting place. I think that if Jones has a nightmare he might have a chance to re-establish himself under Strachan, but it does look like he is now our permanent number two.

Mark Yeates - Midfield

Gareth's second signing of the pre-season came from Colchester, and was keen to impress. He made a bright start to his Boro career against Sheff Utd, looking like one of the best players on the park, and creating Boro's best chance of the game but his shot went narrowly wide.
Since then his appearances have been sporadic, making a few starts and sub appearances. At times we see glimpses of what a player he could be, but I feel like he hasn't yet been given a chance to show his full worth to the side. Since Gordon Strachan took over we have only seen a few minutes from Yeates, as Strachan doesn't seem to fancy the Irishman. As he has not really featured recently could be a favourite to be moved on come January, but the attitude of Mark suggests to me that he'll stay and fight to get back into the team.

Leroy Lita - Striker

Leroy was what Boro needed - an experienced Championship striker - with an fairly impressive strike rate in the Championship. He debuted against Sheff United, but waited until the fourth game of the season to make his mark for Boro by scoring a difficult chance against Doncaster, in a 2-0 home win. He went on then to score at Reading, his former club, and more recently against Notts Forest. Leroy has partnered Emnes, Aliadiaire, Folan, Bent and Kiston, but I am sure he is looking to forge a regular partnership, and to start converting a higher percentage of his chances. Lita has been known as a trouble causer in the past, but I'm positive with the right partner up front, and a regular run in the side he is more than capable of getting at least 15 goals this season.

Caleb Folan - Striker (On Loan From Hull City)

Somewhat of a panic signing from Gareth (or so it seemed, especially with his goal scoring record), Caleb joined us from Hull after falling out of favour with Phil 'The Perma-Tan Man' Brown. Debuting in the 5-0 home defeat to West Brom his Boro career didn't get off to the best start, then a subsequent injury has kept his off the pitch for the best part six weeks. He seems to be a hot favourite to get shipped back to Hull now Strachan has arrived, but only time will tell. The Leeds born striker was keen to impress and earn a contract when he arrived, so with any luck once fit he'll be trying his hardest to get back into the team.

I think whilst Gareth was trying to address the major areas of concern within the squad, the players that he brought in, Lita aside, are just not of the quality to be challenging for automatic promotion. Is this because Gareth was given little backing by Steve Gibson and so he had to buy this quality of player, or was Steve holding the money back because he was getting sick of it been wasted on flops. Either way, funds are now available for Gordon Strachan, and prior to January I'll post a similar piece regarding his signings, and maybe give some predictions for the January transfer window.

Thanks for reading, and as always comments (good or bad) are always appreciated. Keep a look out on Twitter (@MFCFacebook) and check the links section of this blog for the Facebook MFC Fanpage.