Middlesbrough vs Bristol City 30/1/10

Boro 0 - Bristol City 0

By Steven Byrne

After the midweek 4-1 demolition of Doncaster Rovers at the Keepmoat things were starting to look up for Boro and there was a feeling around the Riverside that we had finally turned the corner, maybe. Bristol City took at 6-0 beating at home to Cardiff City in the week and a win for Boro today would mean back to back wins for the first time since early September.

Barry Robson made his home debut in centre midfield in place of Julio Arca and Leroy Lita started up top in place of Jonathon Franks. Jonathon Grounds kept his place at centre back after an impressive display against Doncaster. With the end of the transfer window looming it could also be, as many feared, Adam Johnson’s last game in a Boro shirt. New loan signing Stephen McManus from feeder club Celtic took his place on the bench.

Boro started the game brightly with Gary O’Neil and Chris Killen both coming close early on. Leroy Lita was frustrating the home fans again as he spurned a series of half chances. Willo Flood was again putting in a busy industrious performance but Adam Johnson was finding it difficult to get into the game after being closely watched by City’s Bradley Orr. This resulted in Justin Hoyte constantly finding himself in loads of room down the left, but due to the fact he left his left foot at Arsenal nothing ever came off for him. Tony ‘one ball’ McMahon on the other side seemed as reluctant as ever to pass the half way line and tried his trademark ‘over the top’ a few too many times again with no end result.

Half time ensued and you got the feeling that one goal would win it. City were well organised and had virtually taken Johnson out of the game, leaving Boro short of ideas. The second half got underway and Boro again started brightly but on 56 minutes the until then impressive Robson was sent off after a second booking for a foul on Nicky Maynard, only moments after a final warning from the ref. The three points now seemed to be slipping away, but if anything this seemed to spur Boro on.

Julio Arca came on for Hoyte at left back, which seemed a strange decision considering Joe Bennett and Andrew Taylor were both on the bench, but Boro continued to press. Chris Killen headed over when it seemed easier to score and Adam Johnson came close with right footed shot which whistled past the post. Jonathan Franks replaced the disappointing Lita but his energy couldn’t help create that vital opening.

Late on Killen again found himself in space after a clever pass by Gary O’Neil but fired over. David Wheater had a great chance to win it in injury time but he seemed surprised by the amount of room he had and his diving header from Gary O’Neil’s corner flew over the bar.

Boro, despite being down to ten men for most of the second half, had the better of the possession and will feel that the three points were there for the taking, but once again due to a lack of quality in the final third the home fans are left waiting for what will be only our second home win since mid October.

Player Ratings

Coyne - 6

McMahon - 5

Hoyte - 5

Grounds - 7

Wheater - 7

Flood - 7

O'Neil - 7

Robson - 5

Johnson - 5

Lita - 4

Killen - 6

Subs:

Arca - 5

Franks - 5

Boro Man of the Match - David Wheater

Attendance - 17,865

Game Highlight - Promising performances from Flood and Wheater

Thanks for reading, and as always comments (good or bad) are always appreciated. Keep a look out on Twitter (@MFCFacebook) and check the links section of this blog for the Facebook MFC Fanpage.

Boro - Just a One Man Team

As I sat in the stadium yesterday I wondered 'has our recent decline really been due to Gordon Strachan, or is there another reason' and then it hit me. Adam Johnson.

I mentioned this to my mate sat next to me, and we both wondered how what the results have been when he has played well, and what they have been when he's not directly contributed, so I set about collating a few statistics to see what the answer was.

Now unfortunately I can't find a site with his player rating out of ten for each game (and this blog doesn't go back that far) so I had to go with the games he played, missed, scored and assisted in, and it makes shocking reading:

Includes two cup games where points have not been counted

When Johnson plays, and contributes with a goal or assist, we win 64% of our games, compared to 12% without a contribution. 23 points with a Adam Johnson contribution, and only 10 without.

Has Johnson's contribution flattered Southgate?

Now here is the interesting thing, Boro have now played 28 games in all competitions this season, and also each manager has managed for 14 games each, so its a good time to look at the 'Johnson Effect' for each manager. Now something you hear quite a bit is that we should never have got rid of Southgate as we were one point off top... but how much of this had to do with Southgate's managerial ability, or just that Adam Johnson was in a patch of good form?

In Gareth Southgate's 14 games in charge, Johnson contributed a goal or assist in 8 out of 14 games (57%), and in Strachan's first this figure is 3 out of 14 games (21%).

Now it could have been that Southgate got the best out of Adam Johnson, but there was signs there that his form was ebbing away - in the last six games Southgate had in charge Johnson only contributed in two games, leading to three losses in the same period, so I'm not convinced that it was this. We all know Johnson couldn't keep his Ronaldo like form up all season, and I believe that his drop in form had started prior Strachan taking over, not because he took over.

I'll leave you to make your own conclusions, you might still think that Southgate should never have got sacked, or that we should cash in on Johnson now, or even that Strachan is the answer, but whatever your opinion, the figures speak for themselves and go to show that Adam Johnson is the most influential player at Middlesbrough Football Club by far...

Should We Worry..?

I though I might try and work using averages of points scored, and previous league final standings to see if we have any chance of going up without divine intervention...

Averages...

Looking at a few stats from last two seasons in The Championship and our current performance we firstly, to gain automatic promotion in 2007/08 would have needed 76 points, and a play-off place would be 70 points... And for the 2008/09 season it was 81 and 74 respectively. Now what will be required this year? Well West Brom have played 23 and have 45 points, but not knowing how they will play for their remaining 23 games I'll just have to average out their points over 46 games, that figure being a massive 90 points. So we are looking at quite a tall order to get up there, probably requiring 80-90 for automatic promotion, and 70-80 for a play-off position.

So, how are we doing on our current form? Well we are currently on 32 points from 24 games, at an average of 1.3 points per game. Now that averaged out over the season would put us on 60 points, someway short of our target. Interestingly for the games that Gareth Southgate was in charge of (23 points from 13 games - average 1.8 ppg) the points gained averaged out over the course of the season would have us on 83 points - pretty much guaranteed in the play-offs...

What do we need...

Well for the play-offs we need say 75, which would be an extra 43 points over 22 games which equates to nearly 2 points per game, and promotion at say, 85 points would leave us requiring 53 points from 22 games at 2.4 points per game.

Strachan's points per game ratio is 9 points from 11 games at a rate of 0.8 points per game...

So, it will take us to get double the points under Strachan for the last 22 games if we are to come anywhere near, and obviously we will be taking points from the teams above us, so that will help... but its looking very unlikely that without a miraculous turn around in form that we can come near to the play-off positions. More worryingly still, if we continue at the same rate of points scored we will have 50 points come the end of the season, which last year would have placed us 21st (fourth from bottom) and only 4 points above relegation.

Can Strachan do it..?

I believe he can get near, if he brings in the right sort of players in January, and we shouldn't be in danger of going down. But, and its a big but, it is imperative that Steve Gibson backs him in January and we start picking up points against Swansea on the 9th Jan, at home.

What do you think..?