Sunday 3 January 2010

Should We Worry..?


I though I might try and work using averages of points scored, and previous league final standings to see if we have any chance of going up without divine intervention...

Averages...

Looking at a few stats from last two seasons in The Championship and our current performance we firstly, to gain automatic promotion in 2007/08 would have needed 76 points, and a play-off place would be 70 points... And for the 2008/09 season it was 81 and 74 respectively. Now what will be required this year? Well West Brom have played 23 and have 45 points, but not knowing how they will play for their remaining 23 games I'll just have to average out their points over 46 games, that figure being a massive 90 points. So we are looking at quite a tall order to get up there, probably requiring 80-90 for automatic promotion, and 70-80 for a play-off position.

So, how are we doing on our current form? Well we are currently on 32 points from 24 games, at an average of 1.3 points per game. Now that averaged out over the season would put us on 60 points, someway short of our target. Interestingly for the games that Gareth Southgate was in charge of (23 points from 13 games - average 1.8 ppg) the points gained averaged out over the course of the season would have us on 83 points - pretty much guaranteed in the play-offs...

What do we need...

Well for the play-offs we need say 75, which would be an extra 43 points over 22 games which equates to nearly 2 points per game, and promotion at say, 85 points would leave us requiring 53 points from 22 games at 2.4 points per game.

Strachan's points per game ratio is 9 points from 11 games at a rate of 0.8 points per game...

So, it will take us to get double the points under Strachan for the last 22 games if we are to come anywhere near, and obviously we will be taking points from the teams above us, so that will help... but its looking very unlikely that without a miraculous turn around in form that we can come near to the play-off positions. More worryingly still, if we continue at the same rate of points scored we will have 50 points come the end of the season, which last year would have placed us 21st (fourth from bottom) and only 4 points above relegation.

Can Strachan do it..?

I believe he can get near, if he brings in the right sort of players in January, and we shouldn't be in danger of going down. But, and its a big but, it is imperative that Steve Gibson backs him in January and we start picking up points against Swansea on the 9th Jan, at home.

What do you think..?

1 comment:

  1. Wow when you look at it like that I say our chances are pretty poor then, like you say though if he brings in a couple of proper strikers then we have a decent chance. Like most people I think its going to be the playoffs unless the rest of the championship catches swine flu. Really disapointed about southgate leaving although last year I would have said different, whats strachans plan here he seems to be taking a stroll in the park, personally I dont think he took it so seriously from day one he must have assumed that the form in which southgate left us was going to just carry on. When looking at loan deals for strikers why O why did he think of Bent? This is a man who knows football hmmm. Hope gibsons pockets have got deeper lately its going to take something to get good players to boro now. Good article though never looked at it like that.

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